The Green Zone Fortunes ad suggests a significant shift in the tech industry: “I believe Apple is on the brink of unveiling a product that could potentially supersede the iPhone. If my prediction holds true, the stock of a small company, a pioneer in 3D Power technology and a top contender on Apple’s radar, could see a staggering 100% increase in value overnight.”
So, what’s the real story, and which stock is being mentioned? Let’s see …
This is the attention-getting lead-in from a recent ad for Adam O’Dell’s Green Zone Fortunes:
We’ve heard many similar claims about Apple potentially undermining its iPhone line with superior new products — ranging from virtual and augmented reality like the Apple Vision Pro to AI-driven iPhone models. However, it’s important to remember that Apple operates slower than anticipated and rarely partners with small companies as significant suppliers. So, let’s look at what O’Dell suggests and which products he believes we should consider purchasing. He introduces the concept of “creative destruction,” highlighting how significant brands like Sears have been outpaced by Amazon, Dell missed out on cloud opportunities, and Blockbuster failed when it didn’t acquire Netflix.
We’ve heard many similar claims about Apple potentially undermining its iPhone line with superior new products — ranging from virtual and augmented reality like the Apple Vision Pro to AI-driven iPhone models. However, it’s important to remember that Apple operates slower than anticipated and rarely partners with small companies as significant suppliers. So, let’s look at what O’Dell suggests and which products he believes we should consider purchasing. He introduces the concept of “creative destruction,” highlighting how significant brands like Sears have been outpaced by Amazon, Dell missed out on cloud opportunities, and Blockbuster failed when it didn’t acquire Netflix.
So, the overall idea here is that Apple plans to “end” the iPhone, knowing that something new will eventually replace it, and they want to be the ones to deliver that new innovation.
And the tease begins…
If it follows a path similar to Apple’s, you could earn up to 20x your investment in the coming years. Imagine the potential for massive gains!
Everything revolves around artificial intelligence (AI). The potential of this new technology to completely replace the iPhone is genuinely transformative and inspiring. I am fully confident in this prediction and boldly predict that Apple will announce its strategy to launch the iPhone replacement during its fall event.
He provides several examples of “creative destruction” that led to massive investment gains, including this one:
I’m not sure where O’Dell is getting his numbers from, but that’s completely inaccurate… Intuitive Surgical’s (ISRG) Da Vinci system has performed nearly 14 million surgeries. Currently, the company is highly valued, but there’s no denying that it’s an exceptional business with an impressive track record in the stock market. What’s worth noting is that their initial rollout was very slow, and at the time, no one thought they would achieve such massive success. Therefore, we need to remember that, in hindsight, people tend to focus only on the technologies that succeeded, while many other innovations never got commercialized or developed.
As for the “fear of missing out” (FOMO), we hear the same old tune: “Buy now or regret later!”.
I recently knew about this company. However, this investment was made a while ago as part of Apple’s strategy to boost VCSEL production for its FaceID technology, which is unrelated to any Apple headsets, as they implied.
As for O’Dell’s statement, the phrase “the chart says no” makes little sense. Looking at the chart of IIV/COHR since the announcement of Apple’s $410 million investment more than three years ago, there’s no significant indication to support his claim.
Does O’Dell’s occasional misinformation mean his “secret” stock has lost value? Not necessarily; this serves as a reminder that we are dealing with a teaser ad, where the narrative is designed to evoke anxiety about missing out on an enticing investment opportunity… rather than a calm and logical analysis.
Of course, O’Dell wants you to believe he has everything on the line and cannot afford to make a mistake, which is why you should trust his foresight…
Based on my view, the performance of the recommended stocks of O’Dell has been “off the mark” about half the time in recent years. For instance, his early Imperium and updated picks did poorly, while more recent suggestions like Palantir and Synopsys have performed relatively well this year. This is similar to other over-promising analysts, as most teased stocks fail to outperform the S&P 500. The key takeaway is that investors must rely on their own judgment—whether you’re drawn to or skeptical of this stock (we’ll discuss it shortly), it’s important not to put too much trust in the source or their claims of being infallible.
What exactly will the next iPhone need to deliver to bring “the power and potential of ChatGPT” into the palm of your hand? Here’s more from the ad:
Thus, the main idea here is that Apple will require a more powerful battery for the iPhone to fully leverage AI computing on these devices. This implies that Apple may need to partner with (or perhaps even acquire) O’Dell’s favorite “3D Power” battery company.
Along with this, there are a few more clues…
O’Dell discusses Enovix’s stock (ENVX), an early-stage battery technology developer. The company has experienced significant ups and downs, similar to many next-generation battery companies that went public through SPAC mergers in 2020 and 2021. The initial excitement surrounding the potential for innovative electric vehicle batteries has been tempered by setbacks in moving new battery designs from the conceptual phase to prototypes and, ultimately, to mass production.
What distinguishes Enovix batteries from others is their use of silicon anodes instead of traditional graphite anodes. This innovative approach and its unique layered design are claimed to enhance battery safety. Specifically, they promote their BrakeFlow design, which is intended to help the batteries withstand heat and punctures without the risk of combustion.
Enovix is preparing to begin production of its EX-1M battery on a limited scale, targeting Internet of Things (IoT) devices. They anticipate that this technology could be integrated into smartphones as early as next year, with plans to launch in multiple smartphone models. Additionally, Enovix intends to start sampling its next model, the EX-2M, later this year to support potential products slated for release in 2026 and increase actual production capacity.
Enovix has highlighted in their investor presentations that six out of the eight leading smartphone manufacturers will receive, or have already received, samples of the EX-1M battery for evaluation.
The journey has been quite tumultuous. From 2020 to 2022, Enovix was viewed as a promising venture, especially after going public through a SPAC merger, and they seemed ready to establish their first production line to start selling batteries. However, it soon became evident that their progress was lagging, and they could not achieve the production levels of battery cells they had committed to, prompting major shareholder T.J. Rodgers to step back in as Executive Chairman to tackle operational issues. In January 2023, he provided a compelling overview of the company’s past, the obstacles they encountered in fulfilling early investor expectations, and his plan to recruit “silicon experts” to initiate a cultural shift toward more aggressive growth.
The challenges arose from making unrealistic promises to investors and significant technical difficulties in ramping up production. Their equipment could have performed better, forcing them to rely on a more manual assembly process to make progress, leading to considerable delays compared to their initial timelines. These timelines could have been more ambitious, as is common with many SPACs, with hopes of reaching full production with the first facility in 2023 and generating $400 million in revenue by 2024. Current analyst forecasts now suggest a delay of about 3 to 4 years from those original commitments made during the SPAC process. Although T.J. Rodgers’ presentation in January 2023 initially sparked some optimism, investors have faced another 18 months of fluctuations, causing the stock price to oscillate between $20 and $5 in the past year. It is trading close to its SPAC price, just below $10.
Enovix has secured additional funding during the last quarter, effectively “extending their runway” and bolstering their initiatives for commercial expansion in Malaysia. In that location, the company is working on its Fab2 facility and installing machinery for its Gen2 Autoline, which aims to create a fully automated assembly line for larger next-generation batteries.
Recent updates in their quarterly shareholder letter reveal they have entered into multiple agreements with prospective partners and clients. Notably, they announced a partnership with a prominent technology firm based in California to provide silicon batteries and packs for a mixed-reality headset in June. This development may have contributed to Adam O’Dell’s enthusiasm. Additionally, there was a previous announcement regarding a development agreement with one of the “top five OEM” smartphone manufacturers.
Raj Talluri, the CEO of Enovix, referenced the Apple Vision Pro in several of his Medium posts this summer. However, his comments were framed around the idea of “imagine if the Vision Pro could last multiple days on a single charge” rather than to indicate an existing collaboration with Apple. (At this point, collaborating on the Vision Pro might not be a significant opportunity given its low production volume, but it could foster optimism for future use.)
Ultimately, the company’s success depends on its ability to construct automated assembly lines for its silicon anode batteries and achieve a sufficient yield to ensure profitability. If they succeed, this could scale into a major operation; however, reaching their target operational capacity has proven difficult, and it’s unclear when or if they will accomplish this. My overall impression is that they are on the right path. Still, as I’m not an expert, I cannot predict how long it will take to achieve commercially viable production or whether the batteries provided to customers will meet their standards. This progress certainly won’t coincide with the launch of the next iPhone in September, even if all testing and customer approvals were finalized (which they still need to); Enovix is far from being able to meet that demand.
Investors have shown remarkable patience despite the numerous challenges faced, but in the end, Enovix must deliver on its promises and scale up its operations. Analysts project that the company will likely run out of cash by 2024 and 2025 but could break even by around 2026, with expected revenue of approximately $250 million. The wholesale price of an iPhone battery is estimated between $10 and $20. If Enovix were to supply batteries for Apple’s AI phones by 2026 (though this seems unlikely given the product’s current lack of commercial viability), they would be looking at selling a maximum of 25 million smartphone batteries in that year. In contrast, Apple sold 230 million iPhones last year, so the company still needs to reach that scale shortly. This outlook comes from analysts who lean toward optimism, especially since Enovix recently raised additional funds through stock sales.
Enovix has potential, but its success largely depends on whether its facility in Malaysia can produce commercial batteries in the next year or so. One of their partners—possibly Apple—might decide to invest in Enovix once things become more viable. However, betting on this scenario is highly speculative. Enovix is not expected to be announced as a major supplier for Apple anytime soon, as they’re far from being ready to deliver at scale. It’s difficult to imagine them being prepared within the next year, let alone the next month.
That said, their move to Malaysia and establishing that facility offers some hope as they push towards large-scale production. Compared to when I first evaluated the stock previously, Enovix seems closer to becoming a tangible company. If their silicon anode battery technology succeeds, it could become a standard in the industry over the next few years. I don’t know if the likelihood of this happening is 5% or 50%, but it seems that Enovix is finally moving beyond its R & D phase. Long-term investors may still feel like the company needs to perform better due to overpromising and under-delivering for an extended period.
These are my thoughts. While the outlook does appear a bit brighter than in 2021 during the peak of the SPAC craze, there’s still a long road ahead. Enovix had a big following back then, with notable attention from figures like Marc Cohodes and a few active short sellers. Some of you may own this stock or be familiar with it. As always, feel free to share your thoughts. Will they succeed and become a key supplier of premium devices? Or do you believe their challenges will be too great to overcome, keeping their battery lines from becoming commercially relevant? Or is the reality somewhere in the middle? Share your opinions in the comments below.
