We spent more than a decade as a forex trader before discovering a simpler truth: macro thinking beats trading noise. That the exact date we became a value investor. Our investing framework focuses on fundamentals, cycles, ratio charts, and technical timing. If you want to understand markets without the Wall Street jargon, follow along.
This chart is doing something very simple, but very powerful. It is lining up the gold price with periods of stagflation and asking one blunt question. What tends to happen to gold
This chart shows the projected US federal budget deficit from 2019 through 2034. In plain English, it shows how much more the government is expected to spend than it collects in revenue
This chart is a window into speculative behavior in the silver market. What you are looking at is the positioning of managed money in Comex silver futures across time. In plain English,
This chart is making a very specific macro argument. It is asking whether today’s inflation path is starting to resemble the inflation cycle of the 1970s. The green line is current CPI.
This chart is showing something surprisingly important. Gold is still a very small piece of global investable wealth. The gold line tracks gold’s private investment share of global equities and bonds over
This chart shows one of the most important shifts in modern markets, and it is hiding in plain sight. Back in the early 1990s, Materials and Energy made up a much larger
This chart is showing a very important shift in the silver market, and the title gives away the punchline immediately. In plain English, that means the market is consuming more silver than
This chart is a long history of the yield curve, and in plain English, it is one of the market’s best mood meters for the economy. Think of the yield curve as
This chart is a simple picture of a very big future problem. It shows copper demand rising steadily from around 25 million tonnes in 2020 to more than 42 million tonnes by
This chart is showing one big message: the world is slowly holding less of its reserves in US dollars. Think of global foreign exchange reserves as the emergency savings account of central