This chart is a quiet bombshell.
What it shows is the share of S&P 500 corporate capex going into two very different parts of the economy: tech and related sectors in black, and commodity sectors in blue. In plain English, it tracks where big American companies have been spending real money to build the future.
And the message is brutal. Over the last four decades, capital spending steadily migrated away from old economy sectors and toward tech. Commodities had their moments, especially in the early 1980s and again during the 2000s resource boom, but the bigger trend is clear. Tech kept winning the war for investment. By the end of the chart, tech is taking a far larger slice of the capex pie, while commodity sectors are down near the lows.
Why does that matter for commodities? Because capex today is supply tomorrow. When an industry underinvests for years, it does not feel dramatic at first. In fact, it can look efficient. Margins improve, executives look disciplined, and investors cheer. But eventually the bill arrives. Mines age, reserves deplete, equipment gets old, and new supply struggles to keep up when demand returns.
That is the cause and effect. Less capital into commodity sectors means weaker future supply growth. And when demand collides with tight supply, prices can move hard and fast. That is when commodity markets go from boring to explosive. So this chart is not just about where money went. It is about what the market may have starved, and what could become painfully valuable when the cycle turns.
