This is our thesis roadmap based on our methodological approach to investing.
First, let’s set the stage.
The chart below lays out the RockeTeller Roadmap Cycle of Investing, our side-by-side comparison of three major long-term economic cycles and how well they line up with real historical market turning points from 1999 to 2035.
The three cycles in focus are:
- the Samuel Benner 1876 cycle
- the Fred Harrison 18.6-year property cycle
- and our own RockeTeller cycle
The goal here is simple: to test how accurately each framework helps identify major shifts in the market’s rhythm, the booms, the peaks, the resets, and the moments when the crowd usually realizes the party ended an hour ago.
This is not just a history lesson with fancy lines on a chart.
It is a practical attempt to see which cycle models have actually been useful in spotting turning points across time and where our own framework fits into that picture.
Red inverted triangles represent predicted market crashes, while green upright triangles represent predicted bull market periods. The shaded red vertical bands mark periods when a major market decline actually occurred, and the green bands indicate periods when a bull market emerged.
The numbers inside each triangle show the timing difference in years between the cycle’s prediction and the actual market event, allowing viewers to evaluate forecasting accuracy. Smaller numbers indicate closer alignment with reality.
As you can see clearly, how insanely those cycle predicted the market.
For a deeper understanding of each cycle, I encourage readers to examine them individually.
Samuel Benner’s 1876 compiled by Rocketeller
Fred Harrison 18.6 Property Cycle compiled by Rocketeller
Just to hype you even more, the chart below presents a multi-cycle investment timeline that overlays three long-term economic cycles to identify potential market turning points between 2019 and 2045.
The red arrows mark periods when each model flashes a potential market-crash warning. The green arrows point to projected bullish phases. Then come the highlighted zones, the areas that matter most where multiple cycles start saying the same thing at the same time.
That is where things get interesting.
The yellow band marks the projected crash window. The blue band shows the overlap zone, where several cycles converge. And the teal band represents the projected bull-market range that could follow. When separate cycle models begin clustering around the same periods, it raises the probability that a major market transition is not random noise, but a timing signal worth paying attention to.
And this is where everything folds back into our core thesis:
The next recession, or major market break, could arrive somewhere between 2026 to 2028.
That estimate is not pulled out of thin air. It comes from the average timing across three different frameworks: Samuel Benner’s cycle, which points to roughly 1–2 years; Fred Harrison’s 18.6-year property cycle, which suggests 0–1 year; and our own RockeTeller cycle, which also points to 0–1 year.
Different models. Different origins. Similar destination.
That does not guarantee the exact month, the exact trigger, or the exact headline. Markets rarely send engraved invitations. But when multiple long-cycle frameworks begin converging on the same window, ignoring it would be like smelling smoke and deciding the fire alarm is just being dramatic.
So yes, 2026, 2027, 2028. Those are the years we are watching closely.
Stay prepared. Because when the turn comes, it usually moves faster than most people expect.
